Federal elections: Impact on sharemarket & currency – Daily News

Daily News 启运配资官方,股票入门地址

  • In the 11 elections held since 1990, the All Ordinaries Index climbed by an average of 1.2 per cent in the 15 trading days after poll date. In fact, the All Ordinaries Index has risen in the 15 trading days following every one of the eight federal elections held since 1998.
  • In the 15 trading days after federal election poll dates, the Aussie dollar, on average, rose by 1.3 per cent. In eight of the 11 federal elections held since 1990 the Aussie rose in the 15 trading days after poll date. 

Background:

  • We have taken a look in the rear-view mirror and analysed the impact that every federal election since 1990 has had on the sharemarket (All Ordinaries Index) and the Aussie dollar.
  • Since 1990, Australia has held 11 federal elections. Out of those 11 elections, the Australian Labor Party (ALP) won four elections: 1990, 1993, 2007 and 2010. The Coalition Liberal National Party (LNP) won the remaining seven elections: 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2013, 2016 and 2019.

The Impact on the sharemarket:

  • In the 11 federal elections since 1990, the All Ordinaries index added, on average, 0.5 per cent in the 15 days leading up to the election. And in the 15 days after the election, the All Ordinaries Index climbed by an average of 1.2 per cent.
  • In fact, the All Ordinaries Index has risen in the 15 days following every election since 1998.
  • In federal elections won by the ALP, the All Ordinaries index fell by an average of 0.4 per cent in the 15 days prior to the election, and climbed by an average of 0.6 per cent in the 15 days after the election.
  • But in federal elections won by the Coalition, the All Ordinaries Index averaged a 1 per cent rally in the 15 days leading up to the election, and averaged a 1.5 per cent climb in the 15 days after the election.

A deeper dive:

  • In elections held since 1990, on the trading day after the poll date, on average, the All Ordinaries Index ticked 0.3 per cent higher. When the LNP won, the index delivered a 0.5 per cent increase, but when Labor won, the index finished flat on average.
  • And again in federal elections held since 1990, on the day before the poll date, on average, the All Ordinaries Index retreated by 0.1 per cent.  But on the day before a LNP-winning election, the index rose by, on average, 0.1 per cent. On the day before a federal election that Labor won, the index fell by an average of 0.3 per cent. 
  • For the past three elections, the daily movement on the trading day immediately before and immediately after the election was positive.

发表评论